In the final days of 2025, CBS aired an interview with Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan in which he shared his insights on the state of the U.S. economy going into 2026. As a CEO of a major U.S. financial institution, he’s in a unique position to observe consumer and business spending on both the aggregate and transaction levels. So what does he make of where we have been and where we are going? In the interview, Moynihan stated that after what can only be described as a volatile 2025 where affordability is top of mind, he is expecting solid growth in 2026 despite the potential for ongoing political and economic volatility. Trends Moynihan expects include steady consumer and business spending, softening interest rates resulting from tepid inflation, trade moderation and regulatory simplification. While good for consumers, these trends are also especially good for the business sector of the economy. You can watch the full interview here. It’s worth a watch!
Given that roughly 67% of the United States Gross Domestic Product is driven by consumer spending, Moynihan was keen to highlight what they are seeing at Bank of America. In aggregate and across income brackets, spending increased over Thanksgiving weekend 2025 compared to the same time in the year prior. Yes, inflation and affordability are key issues, but wages are also rising; and while unemployment may be ticking upwards, the rate is still relatively low. “At the end of the day, people are spending,” Moynihan says. And the economy’s health depends on keeping consumers engaged. “If the companies employ people and pay them a little bit more,” he continues, “they will spend.”
Largely as a response to consumer concerns related to “affordability,” the Trump administration is also encouraging specific policies to reduce prices and interest rates. In the early days of January 2026, the administration instructed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy $200 million in mortgage bonds (facilitating lower interest rates), warned hedge funds against investments in residential real estate (making homes more affordable) and has and said credit card rates should be capped at 10% for a year (reducing consumer interest expense). While none of these are yet fully implemented, they do show a focus on improving how consumers and businesses feel from a financial perspective.
Moynihan says the Trump administration’s tariff announcements in April 2025 did create uncertainty and tumult among businesses. However, this tumult is starting to wind down. “Broadly in the world, you can see sort of the endpoint here, and it’s gotta work through the system,” says Moynihan. In 2026, Moynihan actually predicts a phase of trade moderation as foreign governments learn the best way to negotiate with the Trump administration. This too should benefit consumers and businesses alike.
No review of 2025 and preview of 2026 would be complete without addressing the impact of Artificial Intelligence on business. Despite the media euphoria surrounding ever-shifting and expanding AI technology, Moynihan doesn’t see it as a threat to the amount of jobs available to humans. He turns to his own company’s practices to illustrate this: even though BofA has used AI for years in the form of its virtual assistant, Erica, it still hired its usual class of more than 2,000 recent college graduates over the summer. Moynihan sees AI as perhaps the most transformative technology tool ever implemented in business, but as past transformative technologies show, the workforce is usually transformed versus eliminated as a result. Moynihan notes the importance of developing the technology with care. This level of care requires human employees to develop and integrate AI in thoughtful ways—rather than one replacing the other, it is a question of creating a fruitful collaboration.
What does BlueSky expect of the business segment of the economy in 2026 given macroeconomic trends and past behavior?
While we’re still in the early days of 2026, we are seeing encouraging signs of business confidence as we move forward. For example, firms that have deferred filling roles for the past few quarters have begun moving aggressively to fill them. Likewise, consulting firms are beginning to expand their teams with talent well-versed on how organizations can use AI to optimize business processes and outcomes. We expect this to be a trend throughout 2026-2027 as businesses look for greater value from their AI investments.
We’ve also seen an early uptick regarding mergers and acquisitions across corporate and private equity clients. While recent years have seen due-diligence activity, many corporations and private equity firms have been cautious about actually acquiring, preferring to let macroeconomic conditions settle before making more aggressive moves. While we are still early in the year, we do appear to be entering a new phase of corporate and investor optimism which counters the cautious tone of the past. At BlueSky, we are encouraged about 2026 and beyond!